Bitcoin's Oil Switch: Why Brent Crude—Not the Fed—Determines BTC's Asset Class Behavior

Bitcoin's 3% surge on the Iran ceasefire while gold fell 3.7% and oil dropped 4% reveals a conditional framework: BTC acts as a geopolitical hedge ONLY when oil prices are the transmission mechanism. During pure macro events (FOMC), BTC trades as an 89-95% correlated risk asset. This resolves the 'is BTC a hedge or risk asset?' debate: the answer depends on whether oil is the variable. Track Brent crude as the leading indicator for BTC regime shifts.